I am increasingly loath to make predictions or even trust the ones others make, not because of any great climate skepticism or anything, but simply because the more I look at the science the more I realise scientists are still struggling with the basics of climate modelling. And that's because it's damned hard. It seems fairly nailed on that we're gonna be up shit creek, which of course poses the (perhaps overly broad) question of whether we - the global North - should be pumping money into adaptation, mitigation or both.

I've spent some time thinking about water levels, coastal and resulting upriver changes. Had some horrendous flooding in NH a few years ago and a hurricane dropped a good chunk of ocean on Vermont last year.

I like living on the coast and admit to a prejudice about believing the farther a population is from a big ass body of water the more insular and crazypants they seem to be. I can dig out links on predicted coastal changes around the world, which are quite grim.

My model of magic includes building a strong relationship with place and in doing so learn about the way water moves now under and above ground. Are there places of restriction and toxicity (hey look a nuke power plant on the coast wee!) creating hazards and what are the routes of migration.

You and the Archdruid, and Dmitri Orlov, although I think his reasons have more to do with the practicalities of moving goods and people via navigable and safe bodies of water.

I think I turn to climate modeling much the way I turn to divination; I'm at the limits of my own brainpower to imagine the future and I need some tools to help me think further.

We've had about a week of winter weather so far this year, and it's really getting alarming to me. The reservoir storage is still quite high from last year's late spring rains, but the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada region is only at 19% of normal, and unless we get similar late rains this year (which could happen, and would be the second year in a row to severely damage early spring fruit crops) by summer's end we will have a pretty severe water shortage.

For those who aren't familiar with northern California watershed management (most everyone who isn't from here, I suspect) the San Francisco Bay Area gets its water from the Hetch Hetchy Reservoir—once a beautiful valley that rivalled Yosemite in its incredible natural splendor, that John Muir fought for and lost—which is filled up annually by spring snowmelt, to the tune of about 350K acre feet (one acre foot of water is about 351,850 gallons or the amount of fluids stored in 69,212,589 miniature dachshunds that all have to go out right this minute). Some amount of this water is then pumped across miles of tectonically active land in irrigation ditches built in the 19th century, mostly out of brick, to SF residents' homes and businesses. A far greater proportion of it goes to Central Valley farms that grow vegetables and fruits for California, US, and international markets; and to LA. Every year the winter rains and snows fill up the reservoirs and replenish the snowpack. The summer dry season, when it is extremely hot inland (although not so much here on the coast), threatens most crops if not extensively irrigated, and also brings wildfires. A dry winter means a bad fire season. An unfortunately-positioned earthquake of any severity could interrupt water supplies to California's most populated areas as well as to the farms that feed us and on which California's economy depends.

Is it possible that coastal northern California could convert to a winter-dry, summer-wet pattern, such as prevails in the subtropics where I grew up? That would be devastating to native ecologies. Many native plants, and thus animals, depend on winter rains and summer dryness, even being adapted to and dependent on a regular cycle of brushfires.

Even more worrisome is the potential loss of fog. Fog on the California coast is a significant contribution to soil moisture for native plants. The whole ecosystem is adapted to depend on regular availability of fog. Condensation trickles down the branches of trees and into the soil, nourishing the tree but also all the surrounding vegetation. Without fog, the California redwoods, the giant sequoias, and all the plants and animals that depend on those keystone species are as good as vanished.

To plan on adapting for climate change, as well as greater resilience to earthquakes, we need to convert the California water infrastructure to be able to handle long droughts, and we need the capacity to get our water closer to home.

Here's another drought paper reviewed by Stuart Staniford.

entity said: Without fog, the California redwoods, the giant sequoias, and all the plants and animals that depend on those keystone species are as good as vanished.

Pardon me, I'll be in the corner trying not to have a panic attack :(

-E-

Sorry. Crisis framing again.

...some scientists think maritime fog may actually increase?

...I'll write my friend who is researching this topic to find out more.

It's ok, I just... get really overwhelmed by things like this sometimes, and I realized I was actively suppressing hyperventilation in response to reading about the Redwoods disappearing. This is my home, it always has been, the idea of it just... I can't deal with it today. That's not your fault.

-E-

I had a similar bodymind response and I've never even seen a sequioa in person. How it must affect you if that's you home... gah.

The totally awesome thing is that trees don't just depend on rain—they help make it.

Due to evapotranspiration, an intact belt of trees along the maritime California coast can create more humidity above them. They also affect wind turbulence. Altogether this leads to a positive effect on cloud formation and rainfall inland. At the same time they shelter inland crops and ecosystems from the damaging storms that seem to also increase under warming temperatures.

A shelter-belt of drought tolerant trees planted all up and down the California coast could help to preserve pockets of redwood forest. But only if we are also applying the brakes to CO2 emissions hard.

California is a state of tree-lovers. Even most of the Republicans here are kind of into them, as long as no one's looking. Can we push a shelter-belt tree-planting movement forward in this state? I think it is totally possible.

(Mordant, I am highly tempted to send you a seedling sequoia to talk to and plant somewhere.)

If we are going to start an international illegal tree smuggling ring, then can someone send me a cutting from Pando. The idea of him excites me.

All contiguous points of land may be connected by a web of mycelium carrying chemical messages. The marine web of plankton may do the same in the sea. Dawn Redwoods, the ancient evolutionary ancestor to the Giant Sequoia and the California Redwood, were recently found alive in China, and have now been replanted all over the world.

Life will find a way. It's just that it may be unrecognizable to us fifty years from now.

Mordant Carnival said: I had a similar bodymind response and I've never even seen a sequioa in person. How it must affect you if that's you home... gah.

It's a bit worse than that, even - Redwood is one of my spirit allies.

-E-

Man, that would be like if oaks were under threat...

Mordant Carnival said: Man, that would be like if oaks were under threat...

Around here they are!

Sudden Oak Death. :(

-E-

Sudden Oak Death could be controlled using indigenous land management practices—seasonal burning, for example—to keep stands of oak open and spacious, allowing each tree plenty of room to breathe. It may mean removing a lot of California Bay (a tree I love) and unfortunately, Tanoaks (related to oaks but not a member of the genus) are particularly susceptible and may be lost altogether. Many land managers are told to clear Tanoaks altogether, which is unfortunate as they're such a useful acorn producer—but if it saves the surrounding Black Oaks, Liveoak, or Valley Oaks it may well be worth it on a given site.

One risk factor in SODs is warmer and wetter springs. The disease spreads more quickly during such times, and everyone is urged to take care with their shoes and gear when hiking in oak woodlands so as not to import contaminated soil.

Woooow. Our big problem is Oak Wilt; I've never heard of Sudden Oak Death before. The trees bleed? FFS, that's freaking creepy.

Somewhat of a tangent, but at my work we just finished day two of a two day training about framing climate issues, and it was really helpful. I'd heard this stuff before, but applying it to our own material was new, exciting, and very helpful.

This is the recipe we've been given to follow with our presentations:

Start with a value:
Innovation
Stewardship
Responsible management
Interconnectedness
or, slightly less effectively, the Precautionary Principle.
Avoid: CRISIS, mentioning "climate change" or "global warming" in the first few sentences, and appealing to aesthetics (I know, but apparently the people who agree with you think of nothing except how beautiful the animal or environment is and the people who disagree with you turn off and tune out.)

Follow by clearly explaining a causal chain:
Fossil fuels, made mostly of carbon, are burned to produce energy
Burning fossil fuels emits more carbon dioxide
Carbon dioxide concentrates in the atmosphere
It thickens the atmospheric "blanket" around the Earth, trapping more of the Sun's heat
Average temperatures rise
This causes changes in the weather patterns and in the oceans
Avoid: Blaming/shaming, esoteric metaphors like "greenhouse effect" (I know, but a lot of our kids have never been inside a greenhouse)

Move from individual level actions to community responses:
"How many people recycle? That's great, because when we recycle we use less energy to make new stuff. How many people turn off your lights when you leave a room? That's great, because using less energy means less carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. How many people do those things AND talk to other people about saving energy?"

Keep coming back to the value
Avoid overwhelming people with information
Stress positive actions we can take rather than negative consequences if we don't

So something I'd be interested in is talking about ways to add NLP and other "enhanced" communication practices into this recipe. One thing I've already been trying to do is mix in different sensory analogies. I'd like to try stirring in things like "Close your eyes and picture your house right now. What are some of the things you see in your house that are using energy? Do you hear anything that's running in your house—like your TV, or your radio, or maybe the dishwasher? As you walk through your house, imagine turning off the things you don't need. Notice how it feels to be in your house without all that extra stuff going on..." That's excessive and clumsy and I'd have to find a way to do it more subtly, but I suppose I could try.

Have you read George Marshall's stuff? He's a clever climate change activist in the UK, and some of what you wrote above reminds me of what he was talking about recently when he came to christian ecology link.

If I remember right he started with - introduce yourself using what you have in common with the group you are talking to; then talk about how/why you are not a "typical green"; then be able to account for how you personally know climate change is happening right now; talk about how you make changes in your own life. gtg.

I may be slightly OT here, but the concept of water as threat - a position which must seem inexplicable to large proportions of the global population - is quite a personal one.  My home city was hit by flash flooding a few years ago; a man drowned on the pavement on a regular street.  The river simply swept out and engulfed everything.  I have an abiding memory of the road breaking open in front of me as the flood swept underground too.  The sense of communal psychic (in both the clinical and magical sense) shock was in some ways much more disturbing than the devastation.  That mental reaction to the chaos and change resulting from this kind of ecological event aren't something we often hear discussed outside of Ballard...